Thursday, January 25, 2024 – KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) will be an important battlefield of the 2024 elections, as the country faces its most unpredictable election of the post-apartheid era this year.
The
Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and African
National Congress (ANC) are among the big political parties that are going to
be launching their election manifestos at the Moses Mabida Stadium in the
coming weeks.
“It certainly looks like a very interesting period in KZN,
due to two factors. KZN shares the national vote. Although Gauteng is larger,
KZN shares the national vote, which has been growing steadily increasing over
the years. The support patterns are changing in the province,” says Michael
Edkins, an independent election analyst.
Michael says parties see opportunities to make gains, which
would also significantly affect the national total which could be largely
affected by what will unfold in KZN.
“Umkhonto We Sizwe (MK) has to eat into ANC support in the
province in 2009, and 2014 was largely due to former President Jacob Zuma; we
don’t know how many of those voters will follow Zuma to MK, we don’t know how
many could return to IFP in seeing what is happening within the ANC.”
South Africa’s fourth largest party, the IFP, is the
Official Opposition in KZN and controls the majority of municipalities in the
province.
The
party will launch its manifesto on 10 March at the Moses Mabhida stadium, a
month after the EFF’s manifesto launch on 10th February at the same
venue.
Analysts
say that EFF’s decision to launch its election manifesto at Moses Mabhida
Stadium in Durban is expected to bolster the party’s national support base.
In
a recent ‘favourability score’ poll by the Social Research Foundation
(SRF), former President Zuma scored 28.9% amongst all registered voters
nationally and 63.1% amongst all registered voters in his home province, KZN, a
critical electoral battleground for political parties.
The
poll results showed that almost one in three South Africans were favorable
towards Zuma. His new political party, Umkhonto Wesizwe, was expected to cost
the ruling ANC votes in this year’s elections.
The
SRF surveyed 1,400 registered voters nationwide and 2,400 in KwaZulu-Natal.
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